J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report:: New-Vehicle Retail Sales Are Heating Up with the Start of the Summer Selling Season
WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.: 21 June 2013; New-vehicle retail sales are continuing their positive trend in June, with
no signs of letting up at the start of the summer selling season, according
to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by the Power Information
Network(R) (PIN) from J.D. Power and LMC
Automotive.
Retail Light-Vehicle
Sales
New-vehicle retail sales in June are projected to come
in at 1,118,800 vehicles, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized
rate (SAAR) of 13.2 million units, a healthy increase of 500,000 from the
May SAAR. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true
underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.
While sales overall are strong, not all segments are
selling at the same pace. Sales of premium vehicles account for just 11.7
percent of new-vehicle retail sales thus far in June, down from 12.9
percent in June 2012.
The underperformance of
premium light-vehicle sales is largely due to the age of the models in
these segments. J.D. Power calculates that the average age--the number of
months the vehicle has been in the market since it was introduced or
redesigned--of premium models sold in the second quarter of 2013 was 43
months. In comparison, the average age of non-premium models--excluding
pickup trucks--is only 34.5 months.
J.D. Power
expects that by the second quarter of 2014, the average age of premium
products will fall to just 33 months, as new and redesigned products enter
the marketplace.
The strong selling pace continues
to be matched by strong transaction prices. Thus far in June, the average
transaction price of new vehicles is $28,900--the highest ever for the
month of June.
"Although the premium segment
growth has lagged non-premium, there is some good news for the industry in
that the average price of premium vehicles in June is $47,000, up almost 4
percent from June 2012," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the
global automotive practice. "New premium vehicles entering the market late
this year will also help bolster sales through the second quarter of
2014."
Total Light-Vehicle
Sales
Total light-vehicle sales in June 2013 are expected to
grow by 12 percent from June 2012 to 1,380,800 units. Fleet sales in June
are just 19 percent of total sales. Fleet volume for the month is projected
at 262,000 units.
J.D. Power
and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
June 20131 |
|
| |||
1,118,800 units
(14% higher than June
2012)2 | 1,177,391 units | 1,021,635 units | |||
Total Vehicle Sales | 1,380,800 units
(12% higher than June
2012) | 1,442,061 units | 1,283,590 units | ||
Retail SAAR | 13.2 million units | 12.7 million units | 12.0 million units | ||
Total SAAR | 15.7 million units | 15.2 million units | 14.4 million units |
1Figures cited for
June 2013 are forecasted based on the first 13 selling days of the
month.
2The percentage change is
adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (26 days in June
2013
vs. 27 days in June 2012).Sales
Outlook
LMC Automotive continues to hold the outlook for
total light-vehicle sales in 2013 at 15.4 million units, but has increased
its forecast for retail light-vehicle sales to 12.6 million units from 12.5
million units, as retail sales growth expands.
"There
is little question that the automotive market has strong momentum as we
close out the first half of 2013," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice
president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "Looking forward, all the key
fundamentals are in alignment to continue the current growth trend, with
production capacity limitations being the only major visible
risk."
North American
Production
North American light-vehicle production through
June is up nearly 5 percent, compared with the same period in 2012. Ford's
16 percent increase in production thus far in 2013 is leading all
manufacturers, with a significant portion of its increase driven by sales
boosts for the new Escape and Fusion, as well as its F-Series
pickups.
Vehicle inventory levels in early June
are holding at 3.2 million units--a 57-day supply, which is down from 64
days last month.
LMC Automotive's forecast for 2013
North American production remains at 16.0 million units, with capacity
utilization now at a lean 90 percent.
About J.D. Power
J.D. Power is a global marketing information services company providing performance improvement, social media and customer satisfaction insights and solutions. The company's quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power has offices in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit JDPower.com. J.D. Power is a business unit of McGraw-Hill Financial.
About McGraw Hill Financial
McGraw Hill Financial , a financial intelligence company, is a leader in credit ratings, benchmarks and analytics for the global capital and commodity markets. Iconic brands include: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL, J.D. Power, McGraw Hill Construction and Aviation Week. The Company has approximately 17,000 employees in 27 countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.
About LMC Automotive
LMC Automotive, formerly J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting, is the premier supplier of automotive forecasts and intelligence to an extensive client base of automotive manufacturer, component supplier, logistics and distribution companies, as well as financial and government institutions around the world. LMC's global forecasting services encompass automotive sales, production and powertrain expertise, as well as advisory capability. LMC Automotive has offices in the United States, the UK, Germany, China and Thailand and is part of the Oxford, UK-based LMC group, the global leader in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For more information please visit www.lmc-auto.com.