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INRIX Thanksgiving Traffic Forecast Predicts Longer Delays This Year For Drivers on Wednesday Afternoon


thanksgiving

Low Gas Prices and a Steady Economy Combine to Drive Increased Traffic Congestion Over Thanksgiving

KIRKLAND, WA -- Nov. 21, 2014: Americans preparing to drive on Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday can expect trips out of town to take at least 25 percent longer this year compared to a typical Wednesday afternoon due to increased traffic congestion.

According to the annual INRIX Thanksgiving Traffic Forecast, the Wednesday pre-Thanksgiving rush hour is expected to begin two hours earlier than a typical Wednesday with drivers in most cities expecting longer delays. Drivers trying to avoid the worst delays should avoid travelling between 2:00-5:00 p.m.

"Encouraged by low gas prices1 and a steady economy, travellers will experience more traffic on our roads than in recent years when more people stayed closer to home for the holiday," said Jim Bak, INRIX Analyst. "While good news for businesses, drivers will battle more traffic heading out of town this year, particularly on routes near major airports."

Top 10 Busiest Cities for Thanksgiving Traffic Los Angeles, New York, Portland, and San Francisco top this year's list of worst traffic cities with trips out of town expected to take from 25-36 percent longer than a typical Wednesday afternoon. The chart below predicts the peak congestion period and extent of delays for the 10 worst cities.

Rank

Metropolitan Area

2014 Peak Time: Wednesday Getaway Day

Amount of Extra Time Per Trip on Avg (percent)

Percent Change from 2013


 

 

 

1

Los Angeles

3PM-5PM

36

8.50%


 

2

Portland OR

3PM-4PM

35

6.00%


 

3

San Francisco

3PM-4PM

34

13.00%


 

4

Seattle

3PM-4PM

32

7.00%


 

5

New York

3PM-5PM

26

5.00%


 

6

Washington DC

2PM-4PM

25

2.00%


 

7

Philadelphia

3PM-4PM

23

6.00%


 

8

Boston

2.30PM-4.30PM

20

22.00%


 

9

Chicago

3PM-4PM

19

6.00%


 

10

Miami

3.30PM-5.30PM

18

6.00%


 

Added Bak, "Our advice to drivers wanting to avoid the worst traffic is to leave by 2 p.m. or after 6 p.m. on Wednesday. If it's possible to wait to leave until Thanksgiving morning, roads will be free and clear as long as you're not heading to the Macy's parade or a major shopping center to get a leg up on Black Friday."

The above chart shows, for example, the average trip in Los Angeles on the day before Thanksgiving is predicted to take drivers more than a third longer than usual. "Los Angeles is simply the worst place to be on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving," said Bak. "The combination of people arriving for the holiday with those leaving town and normal commuter traffic will result in steady traffic all day long."

Busiest Airport Routes Traffic congestion this year is expected to be worst on key routes to and from major airports nationwide as travelers headed toward flights combine with car travelers to create bottlenecks at these locations. Travelers who can't avoid peak travel times should leave up to 30 minutes earlier than they would typically leave for the airport in normal traffic. For example, travelers headed to JFK via the LIE (Long Island Expressway) should allow an extra 31 minutes of travel time to get to the airport between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. Drivers who want to avoid the worst congestion should travel outside these peak hours.

Metro/Airport

Airport Route

Distance (miles)

Worst Time Period

Travel time

Delay (min)

Houston

Downtown to Houston Bush International Airport via US-59 N

15.6

4-6PM

49 min

33 min

Seattle

Downtown to Sea-Tac International Airport via I-5 South

15.1

2-4PM

47 min

33 min

New York (JFK)

Hunters Point to JFK via Long Island Expressway E

11.1

4-6PM

43 min

31 min

Chicago (O'Hare)

Downtown to O Hare Airport via Kennedy Expressway W

8.2

5-7PM

36 min

29 min

Denver

Downtown to DIA via I-70 E and Pena Blvd

19.7

4-6PM

35 min

13 min

Los Angeles (LAX)

Downtown to LAX via I-110 S

17.3

7-8AM

34 min

15 min

Dallas-Ft Worth

Downtown to DFW Airport via TX-183 W

13.9

3-5PM

30 min

16 min

Miami

Downtown to Miami Airport via Dolphin Expressway W

4.3

4-6PM

27 min

24 min

Las Vegas

Las Vegas Strip to McCarren Airport via I-15 S

8.2

3-5PM

20 min

11 min

Phoenix

Phoenix to Sky Harbor Airport via I-10 E

6.5

3-5PM

18 min

3 min

San Francisco

Downtown to San Francisco Airport via US-101 S

9.3

3.30-5.30PM

13 min

11 min

Atlanta

Downtown to Hartsfield Atlanta Airport via I-75 S

8.2

5-6PM

11 min

8 min

Black Friday Forecast INRIX also analysed traffic levels around America's busiest shopping centers over the last three years to predict what drivers can expect travelling around these areas on Black Friday. INRIX analysis forecasts traffic congestion will peak between 1 p.m. and 5 p.m., advising shoppers to head out early to avoid the worst traffic delays and hassles finding parking at the mall.

The following table tracks the Top 10 Busiest U.S. Shopping Centers, the peak congestion hour and the percentage change over 2013.

Top 10 Busiest U.S. Shopping Centers

Percent Extra Time to Travel On Black Friday (percent)

Worst Time for Traffic on Black Friday

Extra Time at Worst Hours on Black Friday (percent)

Roosevelt Field

Garden City, NY

100

3-6PM

133

Del Amo Fashion Center, Torrance, CA

71

11-2PM

120

Sawgrass Mills

Sunrise, FL

61

12-3PM

4-6PM

79

Westfield Garden State Plaza, Paramus, NJ

42

3-7PM

65

Palisades Center

West Nyack, NY

75

3-6PM

74

Tysons Corner Center, Mclean, VA

51

11AM-2PM

77

The Galleria

Houston, TX

36

Noon-3PM

62

Woodfield Mall

Schaumburg, IL

36

1-3PM

56

King of Prussia Mall

King of Prussia, PA

16

1-3PM

21

Mall of America

Minneapolis, MN

2

11-1PM

6

For travellers wishing to stay up to date on the latest traffic conditions during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the INRIX XD Traffic app provides free, up-to-the-minute insight into current traffic conditions as well as traffic forecasts for all highways, city streets and other heavily travelled local roads nationwide. The INRIX XD Traffic App is available on iOS, Android, Blackberry, Windows Phone and Windows 8. To learn more as well as download the app, visit www.inrixtraffic.com.

Traffic Forecast Methodology INRIX analyzed the Thanksgiving holiday periods from 2010-2014, traffic trends from major national holiday weekends in 2013 and current traffic trends to predict what drivers might expect over the upcoming Thanksgiving getaway and holiday weekend. In measuring the shifts in traffic congestion over these holiday periods, INRIX uses a common measure for congestion called the Travel Time Index referred to in our research as a percentage representing the amount of delay drivers can expect on these days due to traffic.