Memorial Day Weekend Is Key to May's New-Vehicle Retail Sales

DETROIT - May 19, 2016: Automakers are counting on strong new-vehicle sales over the Memorial Day holiday weekend to help give May sales the boost needed for a moderate increase over this month in 2015, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

New-vehicle retail sales in May are expected to reach 1,241,200 units, a modest 1% increase from a year ago on a selling-day adjusted basis, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. The Memorial Day weekend is historically one of the strongest sales weekends of the year.

Retail sales through the first five months of 2016 are projected to reach 5.6 million units, only 0.4% higher on a selling-day adjusted period with the same period in 2015. The pace is on track with LMC Automotive and J.D. Power's full-year projection of 14.3 million units for retail sales, a 1% increase from last year.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail sales in May 2016 is projected to reach 14.1 million units, down from 14.4 million units in May 2015.
Total light-vehicle sales in May are expected to reach 1,539,500, up 2.2% on a selling-day adjusted basis from 1,632,354 from a year ago.
The SAAR for total sales is projected at 17.4 million units in May 2016, down from 17.7 million a year ago.
Given that performance is running just behind expectations, LMC Automotive is reducing its total light-vehicle forecast for 2016 to 17.7 million units from 17.8 million units.
Fleet sales in May are expected to hit 298,000, an 8.4% increase from 298,234 in May 2015, on a selling-day adjusted basis.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
	May 2016¹	April 2016	May 2015
New-Vehicle Retail Sales	1,241,200 units (1% higher than May 2015)²	1,199,077 units	1,334,120 units
Total Vehicle Sales	1,539,500 units (2% higher than May 2015)²	1,505,783 units	1,632,354 units
Retail SAAR	14.1 million units	14.2 million units	14.4 million units
Total SAAR	17.4 million units	17.4 million units	17.7 million units

¹Figures cited for May 2016 are forecasted based on the first 11 selling days of the month.

²The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (24 days in May 2016 vs. 26 days in May 2015).

Deirdre Borrego, senior vice president and general manager of automotive data and analytics at J.D. Power, said: "The Memorial Day weekend is one of the busiest car-buying periods of the year, and we expect it to account for 19% of the month's retail sales. While month-to-date sales indicate we will see a slight increase compared with May 2015, a key variable is the extent to which manufacturers launch holiday incentive programs. Depending on the value and availability of those programs, there is potential for May sales to exceed expectations."

Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive, said: "Vehicle-sales growth appears to be flattening out. While this is driven by an array of variables, including slow economic growth and stock market volatility, a pattern is emerging sooner than anticipated. While we do not anticipate a retraction in volume over the next 12-18 months, strong year-over-year growth will be difficult to come by."